Some quick items that are unbelievable to imagine:
What if Governor Blagojevich is found not guilty? The trial has provided lots of salacious information on the Governor and his wife. They have an unfortunate use of the English language. Their spending on clothes, in the face of financial distress, is unconscionable. And while there's been lots of recordings of potential deals or stalled action, all revolving around political contributions, some commentators are pointing to the lack of a "smoking gun". What if Blago gets off? As abhorrent as this trial has been for state Democrats, I think the prospect of a Blago acquittal may be even more distasteful to the Dems. Voter disgust would rise even more against incumbent politicians and that anger would be directed at the controlling party - Democrats.
Is Mike Madigan still in charge? He's ruled Illinois for nearly 40 years. Through his disciplined approach as Speaker of the Illinois House, Madigan is probably the single most powerful politician in the history of the state. But, it was just pointed out to me yesterday, that Madigan is now having to serve a master other than himself.
Earlier this year, Madigan rushed through, IN ONE DAY, a pension reform package that seriously reduced pension benefits for future state employees. The provisions, sweeping in nature, were an outrage to AFSME and other unions that were completely blindsided by the passage of the legislation in both the house and senate. So why did he do it?
The state was in need of cash infusion to cover both capital and operating costs. As they got ready to float a bond, the political leaders were stunned when the bond underwriters said, "We don't like your financial position as a state. We won't support the bond, And we'll recommend that other firms stay away from it as well." Essentially, they threatened the state with a financial blacklisting, unless they showed tangible evidence that they would start to correct the financial morass of the state.
Madigan blinked. This may be a hopeful sign for Illinois. Not that Madigan is a pragmatist, but rather, that we have some realists (in the form of underwriters) that are now calling the shots, rather than the politicians.
How bad is Illinois' financial condition? Credit Default Swaps are a financial instrument used to "insure" against toxic investments. Essentially, investors might own particular securities (corporate bonds, municipal bonds, etc.). CDS's are a form of insurance that the investor can purchase to protect them against a default or bankruptcy of the institution or state issuing the instrument.
Credit Default Swaps are the market gauge of the financial condition of the particular entity. The higher a CDS price for a particular financial instrument, the more likely investors believe the issuing entity may fail. The market price of the CDS's then allows us to compare the credit worthiness of various states. It's not pretty.
In short, Illinois' Credit Default Swaps are the highest in the nation, as compared to every other state, including NY, California and Michigan. Thus, Illinois bonds are considered the riskiest of every state.
Even worse, when comparing Illinois to other nations, Portugal (who is considered the next riskiest EU country after Greece) has a CDS price that is 20% LOWER than Illinois. The market is saying that Portugal is 20% less likely to default than is the great state of Illinois! Scary...........